The Bradley Effect – Nada – RIP

November 5, 2008 · Leave a Comment

Based on the nearly complete results of the US Presidential election, it is fair to say that we can put the Bradley Effect onto the dusty shelves of history.

Many have argued that the so-called Bradley Effect was simply bad polling.  No polls were conducted in the final four days of the campaign.  That election happened when polling was less ubiquitous and less thorough.  Subsequent campaigns involving candidates of color (Douglas Wilder in Virginia, Bobby Jindal in Louisiana, Harry Ford Jr. in Tennessee) have polled very close to the final results.

Obama-Biden won the popular vote by a 6-point spread – on average this is exactly the total spread predicted by most national polls.  Even more telling was that the polled support for Obama among white voters also matched the final exit poll results.

So for now at least, the one issue that kept me up at nights even when the campaign was enjoying large polling leads has been put to rest.  And I say Rest In Peace.

Categories: McCain · Politics
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